See below for details . . .
Overview
This simple simulator is designed to give you a feel for the impact different voting patterns might have on the 2024 General Election results.
It does not attempt to show what will happen, or even what might happen, but I want to give you an idea of what could happen if a number of circumstances align.
Base Setup
Below are summarised the main starting points to consider when using this simulator;
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The values in the Grey columns are 'Based On' the actual 2019 election results
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The reason I say 'Based On' is that there have been many boundary changes to the constituencies that are now in place. Some constituencies have been broken up and split amongst others, some have been renamed and boundaries changed. The numbers shown attempt to take that into account by applying the percentage splits as applicable.
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This is based on the status as at the last general election, no attempt has been made to include changes due to by-elections since. So a handful of the constituencies might show as Conservative for example, whereas they are currently a Labour seat.
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This only covers England
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The Labour and Co-Operative Party have been included as Labour, which aligns with the ONS data.
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The impact of the GB Workers Party has not been taken into consideration but it is likely to help reduce the Labour vote but no allowance has been made for that
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Column Details
Below is a summary of the main points to note when actually using this simulator. For a more detailed understanding I suggest you watch my short tutorial video.
For each of the main parties, there as 5 columns shown.
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Conservative Party-Votes ==> Number of votes from 2019 after boundary changes have been applied
Conservative Party-Vote share ==> Percentage share of the votes from 2019, using the post-boundary changes electorate estimate
Lost/Gained Conservative Party-Votes Adjusted ==> Number of votes that this party would lose or gain depending on the percentage vote change selection for that party
Conservative Party-Votes Adjusted ==> New number of votes that this party would have based on the percentage vote change selection for that party
Conservative Party-Vote share ==> Percentage share of the adjusted votes based on the post-boundary changes electorate estimate
The control fields at the top of the sheet enable you to set up a scenario based on the percentage vote share you want to model. So for example if you think the Conservative vote will collapse by 30%, select a value of -30%. If you think 30% more people will come out to vote, then set the 'Non-Voters' value to 30%. The affected values will be updated immediately, setting the applicable calculated columns with newly calculated values.
Calculations Overview
So now assume we have set up the values we want in the control section. This will enable us to see what effect that could have on the number of votes and ultimately which seat might change from one party to another, preferably to Reform UK. The simulator does use some very 'sunny day' assumptions as below when calculating the number of votes that could go to Reform UK. However, this is meant to give people hope of what could be achieved if they drop the other parties that have failed us so badly over the years and if those stay-at-home voters made the effort for that single day to get out and vote. It could alter the course of all our lives for the next 5 years!
'Sunny Day' Assumptions​
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All the votes lost by the other parties will go to the Reform UK party
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All the Non-Voters that are converted to Voters, will go to the Reform UK Party
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Where any constituency had a Brexit Party candidate, all their votes have passed over to the Reform UK Party
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Given the above this simulator will not show sensible results in all cases, the focus is on showing how we might increase the Reform UK vote, that is the important thing
Final Summary
After the control values have been entered and the amounts revised, we can see a projection on the righthand side, of which party could take that seat if the main combination happens of non-voters getting out and voting for real reform, and those who do not want to vote for the mainstream parties, coming over to Reform UK.